What happened?
Twelve years!
You hit me with a cricket bat!
Ha! Twelve years!

Thursday, October 31

Life

Trickle Treat

Only one group so far this Halloween.  At this rate I'm going to be left to eat four pounds of chocolate by myself.

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Tuesday, October 29

Geek

Connected

Got my new 4G Nexus 7 to actually do the 4G thing.  All it took was to sit down for 15 minutes and read the instructions.  Turns out it automatically detected the SIM and the mobile network, but because I'm going through a reseller, it used the wrong APN.  Change that setting and, viola, 4G goodness!

Well, when I say 4G, here at PixyLab it's 3G at best, and frequently only 2G.  But at PixyLab I have ADSL with a 1TB/month download cap and two WiFi routers, so that's not really an issue.

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Saturday, October 26

Geek

Black Swans, Dead Parrots

On ComputerWorld, Patrick Thibodeau suggests that Healthcare.gov may be a "black swan".

Not so fast.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb defined black swan events thus:
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
Thibodeau notes in his article:
It turns out that project's 55 contractors had only two weeks to conduct end-to-end testing of Healthcare.gov prior to launch.
Okay.  I've been doing this for twenty years, though I've never led a project with so many stakeholders, or one so mired in regulations.

This is no black swan.  This project was doomed from the start.  It doesn't even matter directly that it's a government IT project, all you need to know is that 55 contractors were involved.

The two weeks allowed for integration testing, and the fact that they got anything resembling a working web site, actually gives me a new-found respect for those contractors.  With a project of this size, an integration test run would take around three months - two months preparation, and one month of everyone working together testing and gathering information.

And you'd typically need about four test runs to get things working smoothly.  And even that could only be achieved if none of the rules changed during that time, and none of the components were found to be toxic - by which I mean that fixing the problems they caused for the overall system would cost more than throwing the component out and rewriting it.

With 55 contractors, you're pretty much guaranteed to have a few toxic components.  Even if everyone involved is basically competent and honest, simple statistics tell us something is bound to go wrong somewhere - a key project lead gets hit by a bus, or hired away by Google; or a new software library causes unforeseen performance problems that require a rewrite and blow out the schedule for the component - and since the deadline is fixed, that component comes in with only minimal testing and passes malformed data on to the rest of the system.

And even then, we're assuming that the overall project management are not just competent, but very talented indeed.  Pulling 55 teams together like that is hard; if the top management are merely experienced and competent, the timeframe for integration would expand from a year to at least two.

And even then we're still ignoring an issue I hadn't thought of myself* - the problem of data schemas.  Or more precisely, the lack of data schemas.  I don't know exactly what systems the site needs to hook into, but we can take it as read that some of them involve decades-old hierarchical databases with no formal schema - no strict definition of the layout of the data - and instead the rules and regulations are enforced by forty years of accumulated Cobol.  And if you try to import that data directly, you'll need to replicate that 40 years of work precisely.

I bring projects in on time and within budget.**  But I have a tool that these people simply did not have - I can go to the client and change the requirements.  In the real world, project requirements are a mix of necessities, hopes, and dreams, and the task of the project manager is to deliver the necessities and to work with the client to turn the hopes and dreams into something realisable.  When I'm presented with a proposal, I can usually say within minutes that the combination of A, B, and C simply cannot be achieved within the desired timeframe (or sometimes, at all), and that we either need to drop one of them, or substitute D for C - where D achieves much of what C would have done, but without the combinatorial blowout of complexity or performance that would have doomed C.  And real-world clients are usually very receptive to that.

In the case of Healthcare.gov, the number of stakeholders, the functional requirements, the interoperability requirements, and the deployment schedule were all nailed down.  With no relief valve in the project definition, there were only a couple of ways this could go.  A major cost blowout would be one way, but that runs head-on into Brooks's Law - someone would have needed to realise the impossibility of the project before it began, and tripled (or whatever) the budget and workforce for this to have any chance of succeeding.

More likely (and this may be exactly what happened) the schedule problems would have been realised half-way through the project.  That's pretty typical; half way through is where you end up taking a serious look at your progress, and while you can convince yourself (usually falsely) that if you're halfway done at the halfway point you're in good shape, if you're a quarter of the way done at the halfway point, even the most optimistic manager is going to hear alarm bells.  Then you push the problem upstairs, and you get assigned more resources, and, as we've known for 40 years, that makes things worse.

Basically, as defined, this was probably a five-year project.  You could have stripped out one requirement - made this an advisory site rather than a registration site - and a good mid-sized development team could have knocked it out inside a year.

And in the commercial world, that's what would have happened.  As a government project, well, the only reason this thing is still sitting on its perch is because it's been nailed there.

* Though I really should have.
** ... Mostly.

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Friday, October 25

Geek

Uncomprominising

So, Apple had a thing, and at their thing they announced the new iPad Mini with Retina Display and Cheese.

I have a Nexus 7 and an iPad 3 (the first retina model).*  I use the Nexus 7 constantly, and the iPad, basically, never.

Not because I don't like it - iOS, at least iOS 6, may be more controlling than Android, but the flip side to that is a smoother user experience.  And the screen is simply beautiful.  But it's too large and heavy for what I use the Nexus 7 for - reading, simple games, and quick browsing and email checking.

The first iPad Mini was interesting on that front, but the display resolution was poor even compared to the old Nexus 7, and simply tragic when compared to the newer Nexus.  What I really wanted was for Apple to take the electronics of their high-end model - 2048x1536 display, faster CPU, 128GB storage - and squoosh that into the smaller 7.9" frame of the Mini.

And that's exactly what they've now done.  The iPad 5 and the iPad Mini 2 are identical except for size.

The new Mini stacks up much better against the Nexus 7.  It's a little heavier - 341g vs. 299g - but it has a significantly larger screen - 2048x1536 vs. 1920x1200 at almost exactly the same pixel density.  So it weighs 14% more, but offers 35% more screen area.

The only problem is the price.  The cheapest iPad Mini 2 costs more than the most expensive Nexus 7.2.  Still, you can't get a 128GB Nexus 7 at any price.

Well, that and iOS 7, of course.  We'll have to see on that one; the screenshots make it look awful, but users don't seem to be that unhappy, for the most part.

* Okay, so I have the original Nexus 7, the new one, the iPad, and a Nexus 10 as well.

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Sunday, October 20

Cool

Turtle!





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Thursday, October 10

Life

Where Oh Where Has My Screwdriver Gone?

So, one of the teeny-tiny screws on my distance pair of glasses has a habit of working loose over time, and I keep a teeny-tiny screwdriver to tighten it up again.

The problem with teeny-tiny things, of course, is that you can't find the bastards when your glasses are broken.

Turns out that a steak knife serves the purpose nearly as well, and is a heck of a lot easier to find.  (Just fumble around in the cutlery drawer until you start bleeding; that's the one you want.)

Posted by: Pixy Misa at 11:04 PM | Comments (8) | Add Comment | Trackbacks (Suck)
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Geek

Studying The Classics

Apparently there's a remake of The Tomorrow People airing now.

You know, The Tomorrow People.

The Tomorrow People.

This:


Well, okay, this:


Some people who are old enough to remember the original (i.e., old) have even said the new one doesn't suck.

Some people who aren't old enough to remember the original (i.e., irritating young whippersnappers) claim there was an earlier remake in the 90's.  I don't believe them.

Posted by: Pixy Misa at 09:03 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment | Trackbacks (Suck)
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Sunday, October 06

World

Hemidemiantegooglewhack

Oddly, the phrase Potemkin shutdown - I say oddly because it seems so apropos - results in only three Google hits, all eventually linking to the same syndicated article.*

The phrase shutdown theater/theatre has a combined count of over 40,000 hits.  It expresses the same concept, but lacks, I feel, a certain historical resonance.  Or antiresonance, since the purpose here is the exact opposite of its namesake.**

* Though I admit I didn't search in Russian.
** Which may not have actually happened anyway.

Posted by: Pixy Misa at 02:33 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment | Trackbacks (Suck)
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Tuesday, October 01

Cool

Shantae

Yes, she fights monsters by flicking them with her pony tail.



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