Sunday, December 22

Geek

Daily News Stuff 22 December 2024

Game Of Rat And Dragon Edition

Top Story

  • Why AI is stupid garbage and everyone in the industry is lying frantically to cover up the truth. (Ars Technica)

    Okay, I may have paraphrased Tim Lee at Ars just a little there, but if you look at the promises AI leaders have made against the mathematical problems they face, that is the gist of the situation.

    AI - LLM-based generative AI, not the more interesting discriminative AI - uses a technology called transformers which lets it process data in a massively parallel way. This requires about the same amount of work as a traditional neural network on simple prompts, while being able to use highly parallel hardware like graphics cards, so you get the result much faster.

    For simple prompts:
    The longer the context gets, the more attention operations (and therefore computing power) are needed to generate the next token.

    This means that the total computing power required for attention grows quadratically with the total number of tokens. Suppose a 10-token prompt requires 414,720 attention operations. Then:

    • Processing a 100-token prompt will require 45.6 million attention operations.
    • Processing a 1,000-token prompt will require 4.6 billion attention operations.
    • Processing a 10,000-token prompt will require 460 billion attention operations.
    So as you make your question more detailed and specific, the amount of time taken to produce an answer increases rapidly.

    Work is now on to replace transformer models with classic neural networks, which don't have these limitations, but also don't have the magical ease of development of the transformer model.

    But that means that promises of AGI next year are simply lies.


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