The ravens are looking a bit sluggish. Tell Malcolm they need new batteries.

Sunday, June 25

Geek

Daily News Stuff 24-25 June 2023

Just People Doing People Things Edition

Top Story


Tech News

  • AI's bigger-is-better approach is running out of road.  (The Economist)

    OpenAI's GPT-3 cost nearly $5 million to train in 2020.  GPT-4 just over two years later cost more than $100 million.  Is OpenAI prepared to spend $2 billion on GPT-5?  Even if they are, is there enough high-quality data that they can spend that much with it automatically going to waste?

    The article suggests that AI companies will be forced to work smarter, not expensiver.  But even if they do that will mean instead of spending exponentially more money for incrementally better results, they'll need to work exponentially smarter for incrementally better results.

    That's an even worse tradeoff.  It's the Technological Nothingularity, where even with AI helping train new generations of AI, progress slows to a crawl indistinguishable from a dead stop, where the technology of tomorrow can be safely predicted by assuming that nothing ever changes.


  • ChatGPT can't program in INTERCAL.  (Muppet Labs)

    That's okay.  Neither can anyone else.


  • Midjourney 5.2 is here and seems to be pretty good.  (Ars Technica)

    It may not matter if your progress stalls, so long as you get to good before stalling it.  If you run out of fuel after arriving safely at your destination. meh, you can deal with it later.

    It was hard to get good results out of Midjourney 2.  It was vague not only on how many fingers people had and where they should be located, but hands and heads as well.  They latest version appears to produce much more coherent images.

Disclaimer: If a product says "not tested on animals", that means they're testing it on you.

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Friday, June 23

Geek

Daily News Stuff 23 June 2023

Postcrime Edition

Top Story


Tech News

  • Windows 11 is garbage.

    When I get back home, Tanya the Evil is getting a Windows 10 upgrade.


  • Intel has made it official: There won't be a 14th generation desktop chip based on the Meteor Lake architecture this year.  (WCCFTech)

    There will however be a 14th generation desktop chip based on the Raptor Lake architecture, which is 13th generation, and a 14th generation laptop HX chip based on the Raptor Lake architecture, which is still 13th generation, a 1st generation laptop U/H Ultra chip based on the Meteor Lake architecture, which is 14th generation, and a 1st generation laptop U/H chip based on the Raptor Lake architecture, which as we mentioned earlier is 13th generation.

    All clear?

    Good.

    Don't buy anything.


  • The 7840HS in the Beelink GTR7 makes for a potent NUC.  (Serve the Home)

    They tested it in light gaming such as League of Legends and logged no real improvement over the previous generation GTR6 with a 6900HX processor.

    Then they realised that the new model has been tested on 4k resolution instead of 1080p.


  • Since I'm back in a big city for a few days I stopped at an electronics store to see if there exists a phone appreciably larger than my Samsung, um, A52 5G I think it is.  Not that I have 5G back home in West Wyalong* but I did in Sydney before the move.

    Well, I didn't; in fact I barely had any Gs at all.  I had five hypothetical Gs, but zero point one actual Gs.

    Anyway, no.

    No good small tablets either.  The sales guys - there were are group of them standing around chatting - paused when I said there were no good small tablets, and then unpaused when I added except for the iPad Mini which I don't want.

    I think I might have to get one, though.  I have my Samsung A7 Lite with me on this trip as well, and it's just a big bundle of meh.

    * May not contain any actual West Wyalong.



  • Prism Project has announced its seventh generation of vtubers.  (Twitter)

    This comes a month after Gen 6, which came a month after Gen 5, which came 18 months after Gen 4, so it seems that someone at Sony finally woke up and remembered that they bought a vtuber agency a couple of years ago.  (The exact terms of the deal weren't made public, but day-to-day operations are handle by Sony now and the talents' music is released under the Sony label).

    The three new talents are all well-known indie vtubers, which is something Phase Connect also did with its "Phase Invaders" generations, and it's what Kawa Entertainment is all about.  Give them a home, let them keep their models and fanbases, and skim a little off the top in return for managing things like music and gameplay rights.


  • So apart from Windows 11, Mrs Pixy, how's the new laptop?  (The HP Pavilion 14, non-Plus version.)

    It's okay.  The screen is definitely meh.  The CPU is significantly faster than my old laptop (six cores vs. four, so it should be), and it has 64GB of RAM and 4TB of SSD because such things are cheap if you can just find a laptop that is still upgradeable, which is the only reason I got this and not the much nicer but unupgradeable Plus.

    Keyboard I'm getting used to, but the screen is not as good as the old laptop even after the old laptop's screen went bad.  Battery life is far from spectacular as well.

    I brought along a little 65W GaN charger with three USB ports to keep the laptop, phone, and tablet topped up and chugging alone.  

    It can't do that.


Disclaimer: Double plus Nongood.

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Thursday, June 22

Geek

Daily News Stuff 22 June 2023

Usual Suspecting Edition

Top Story

  • Journalists for Censorship is at it again: Spotify's podcast platform is going off the rails, except for Joe Rogan who is still drawing huge audiences and we can't stand it!!!!!  (The Verge)
    One problem is that none of these people — from former presidents to filmmakers to bestselling authors — were able to deliver sure-fire podcast hits. Even a podcast hosted by Barack Obama and Bruce Springsteen ended up putting people to sleep.
    This comes as a surprise?
    This cascading series of events says a lot about the unwieldy nature of Spotify’s podcast business, which is still driven mostly by the former host ofFear Factor. Not even a compilation video of Rogan saying the n-word nearly two dozen times got him kicked off the platform. It’s a lot of power for one creator to yield.
    JfC: WHY WON'T YOU CANCEL HIM?!
    Spotify: He actually makes us money.


Tech News



Disclaimer: I'll be away for a couple of days attending a 100th birthday party.  (Not mine.)  Will probably be able to log in remotely and post something though.

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Wednesday, June 21

Geek

Daily News Stuff 21 June 2023

Shark Day Edition

Top Story

  • A new LLM (large language model, the same sort of AI as ChatGPT) called phi-, with 1.3 billion tokens, scores over 50% on the HumanEval problem set.  (Twitter)

    GPT-4 scores 67% - but uses 1.7 trillion tokens.

    How did they achieve this miracle?  They trained phi-1 on textbooks rather than on the internet.

    And what does it means?  It means you can produce an AI that is smart enough to perform simple tasks and small enough to run on your laptop - and probably your phone.

    What else does it mean?  It means to score 85% on that test using the same approach as GPT-4 you'd need something like 2 quadrillion tokens, which would cost billions of dollars to train even if you could find that much data.  And then years to "align", that is, to get it to stop giving obviously wrong answers because you stuffed it full of nonsense.

    Garbage in, garbage out.

    phi-1 took four days to train.  (Arxiv)

    Also, speaking of garbage, don't use textbooks published after 2010 or so.

Tech News



Disclaimer: Instead of office chair, package contained live shark.  Not complaining, but do you have any more of these?

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Tuesday, June 20

Geek

Daily News Stuff 20 June 2023

A Song Of Fiery Ice Edition

Top Story

  • Some say we'll end in Brave New World,
    Some say in 1984.
    I stand with corporate flag unfurled
    And push like hell for Brave New World.

    But if we had to end again,
    I think I know enough of life
    To see that coddling morons*
    Brings us to Harrison Bergeron.

    Complex systems won't survive the competence crisis.  (Palladium)

    The world grows more complex by the day, and we haven't had a dumber ruling class since 1913.  And that worked out just great for everyone, so nothing to worry about.
    America must be understood as a system of interwoven systems; the healthcare system sends a bill to a patient using the postal system, and that patient uses the mobile phone system to pay the bill with a credit card issued by the banking system. All these systems must be assumed to work for anyone to make even simple decisions. But the failure of one system has cascading consequences for all of the adjacent systems. As a consequence of escalating rates of failure, America’s complex systems are slowly collapsing.
    Not just America, of course, but America is the exemplar here of past greatness rapidly corroding from within.  Many of the countries affected by this disease were never great, or their greatness was a century or more past.

    I mentioned Twilio yesterday, with their brilliant three word billboard - Ask your developer - the point being that even if you, the manager driving past, didn't know about Twilio, your technical staff did, replaced by some sesquipedalian drivel about reducing cost of acquisition, but that's just one tiny example of this, and to some degree it's an example of the brain rot that affects all large organisations.  Large organisations cannot innovate, which is why they acquire small ones.

    And then destroy them.

    What's the solution?  With businesses, you let them collapse into bankruptcy and sell of the pieces.  With countries, the traditional approach was war, but that is frowned upon these days.

    * No offense to the Horde, who are the good kind of moron.  Best I could do in two minutes.


Tech News



Disclaimer: Spam is whatever you have too much of.  For some things - like unsolicited advertising - the threshold is zero, or close to it.  For other things - like water - a little is good, but a hundred million gallons in the wrong place will just ruin your weekend.

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Monday, June 19

Geek

Daily News Stuff 19 June 2023

When Seven Hundred Years Old You Are Edition

Top Story

  • At least they're self-aware: Black Mirror's 'Joan is Awful' shits all over the future of streaming.  (The Verge)
    Right now in Hollywood, the screenwriters of the Writers Guild of America are on strike.
    I know this is true, but it hasn't affected my viewing habits one iota.
    And one reason they’re on strike is the fear that AI will take their jobs, churning out mediocre content quickly and cheaply that helps streamers’ bottom lines even if it doesn’t contribute much culturally speaking.
    So their jobs are churning out mediocre content quickly and cheaply that helps streamers’ bottom lines even if it doesn’t contribute much culturally speaking?

    I mean, yes.  True.  Just odd to hear them admit it.
    Disclosure: The Verge’s editorial staff is represented by the Writers Guild of America East.
    I would never have guessed.

Tech News

  • MSI is launching an RTX 4060 without RGB lighting.  (Tom's Hardware)

    I'm so old I remember when computer cases were opaque.


  • There's always a bigger fish, and there's always a slimier lawyer.  (New York Times)

    Slime gets drunk and says things he shouldn't, career implodes, film at eleven.


  • How to destroy your brand in eight words or less.  (Miguel Grinberg)

    Twilio - an API service for sending messages to people, which before Twilio was a confusing mess - replaced its iconic billboard that said simply Ask your developer with one that says How can I reduce acquisition costs by 65%? 

    Bleh.


  • I've been rewatching series 5 of Doctor Who - new Doctor Who, not old Who, which is denoted by seasons and half of season 5 is lost anyway - and it mostly holds up well except for the two-part story in the middle, which was written by Chris Chibnall and is a slow and dreary mess where the characters play hot potato with the idiot ball.

    Chris Chibnall just happens to be the man who took over the show for series 11 and turned the entire thing into a slow and dreary mess where the characters play hot potato with the idiot ball.

    The warning signs were all there.


  • Speaking of warning signs, the trailer for Netflix's live-action adaptation of One Piece doesn't look entirely terrible.  (YouTube)

    Cheesy as hell, yes, but so is the anime.  They seem to have embraced the cheese and kept the spirit, which is encouraging.

    If you don't have kids you might not have heard of One Piece, but it's an industry in itself.  The anime has run for over 1000 episodes (plus fifteen movies), and the manga has sold half a billion copies.

    Will I be watching it?  Probably not.  The anime has run for over 1000 episodes, and I think I've seen one of those.  But if Netflix can produce something that doesn't suck, even now, there might still be hope for us all.


Disclaimer: Probably not.

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Sunday, June 18

Geek

Daily News Stuff 18 June 2023

Malicious Incompetence Edition

Top Story

Tech News

  • Another nail in OpenAI's coffin: Falcon LLM has been open-sourced.  (TII)

    It comes in two versions: Falcon-7B which needs 16GB of RAM to run and is suitable for hobbyists, and Falcon-40B which needs 100GB of RAM and is aimed at academic researchers and startups.  Both are available under the Apache open source license, making them free for individual and commercial use.

    Yes, these LLMs are still wildly overhyped, but they're not entirely useless, not when they're free and can run on a laptop - and when they're not intentionally crippled by ultra-woke marketing teams.

    The developer notes make it clear that Falcon was trained on wide set of data from the public internet, making it into a very well-informed digital schizophrenic.


  • AI does not help programmers.  (CACM)

    Or more specifically, it helps bad programmers become mediocre programmers, but it can't go beyond that because Large Language Models do not distinguish right answers from wrong.

    In the example provided, ChatGPT corrects a bug in the sample code, but introduces a new bug.  When this is pointed out, ChatGPT fixes the specific case but not the general case.

    And when this is pointed out, ChatGPT coughs up what appears to be a hastily rewritten version of the author's own work, because the author turns out to be Betrand Meyer, creator of the Eiffel programming language and a leading expert in formal verification of computer programs.

    To be fair, most programmers aren't Betrand Meyer, but my opinion of the current state of AI tools in programming mirrors his.


  • GPT-4 can pass MIT's Electrical Engineering and Computer Science curriculum with a perfect score.  (HuggingFace)

    A remarkable result.


  • No it fucking can't.  (Notion)

    The second paper highlights two problems with the first.

    One, 4% of the problems in the test set cannot be solved with the information provided, or in some cases, at all:
    Below you are given the delays for the different gates you were permitted to use in part D above. Compute the propagation delay of your circuit from D.
    That's the entire question.  There is no part D above, and yet the claim is that GPT-4 answered this question correctly.  There are many questions like this in the test set - this second paper links to a spreadsheet with the full list of questions, good and bad.

    Two, the answers provided by GPT-4 are scored by GPT-4.  If GPT-4 tells GPT-4 that GPT-4 got the question wrong, GPT-4 gets to try again, indefinitely.

    Supposedly the answers were verified manually, but if so, they did a pretty poor job because they missed all the wrong questions.

    Three - not included in the paper, but posted today on Twitter - the original code used to run the tests leaks the answers used for verification by GPT-4 to the GPT-4 instance answering the questions.

    Oops.


  • Why EVs won't crash the electric grid.  (Washington Post / MSN)

    Yes, EVs will require massive upgrades to the electric grid, but the grid has grown at that rate before.

    Well, it hasn't, but it almost did.

    Once.  Fifty years ago.

    For a while.

    We're doomed.


  • Putting a stick shift in an EV because...  (The Verge)

    There is no because.


Disclaimer: There is no because. There is only Zuul.

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Saturday, June 17

Geek

Daily News Stuff 17 June 2023

Indiana Jones And The Grapefruit Of Doom Edition

Top Story

Tech News

  • Mistral AI's mega fundraise is a red flag.  (Tech Crunch)

    Yes, indeed it is.  This is obviously a bubble and it will all come crash-

    For many concerned with inclusivity.

    Go stick your head in a pig.


  • Feel good story of the day: High-tech AI-controlled vertical lettuce farms are going broke.  (Bloomberg)

    You have to understand that when they say "lettuce farms", they're not actually talking about lettuce farms, they mean...  Nope, sorry, they really do mean lettuce farms.
    In 2021, AeroFarms, an early vertical-farming pioneer based in Newark, New Jersey, had plans to go public through a blank-check merger that had an equity value around $1.2 billion. The growth potential seemed limitless.

    But as interest rates began to climb, investors started to scrutinize profitability in a way they hadn’t for years, and soon came to realise that they had set their money on fire.

    Yes, it's lettuce.  It literally grows on trees.

    What?

    Really?

    Okay, it figuratively grows on trees.


  • Bytedance, parent company of Chinese spy agency TikTok, has bought $1 billion worth of high-end Nvidia GPUs so far this year.  (Tom's Hardware)

    If you were wondering why Nvidia doesn't care that the outrageous pricing and mediocre performance of its RTX 4000 series has turned away millions of gamers, this is your answer.  Margins on these high-end cards are much better; the company would need to sell millions of mid-range gaming cards to match what one customer spent on high-end cards in six months.


  • More on why the AI bubble is a bubble.  (IEEE Spectrum)

    Key quote:

    Our analysis of this phenomenon also allowed us to compare what's actually happened with theoretical expectations. Theory tells us that computing needs to scale with at least the fourth power of the improvement in performance. In practice, the actual requirements have scaled with at least the ninth power.

    This ninth power means that to halve the error rate, you can expect to need more than 500 times the computational resources. That's a devastatingly high price.

    Companies like OpenAI don't want to fix this problem because it's the barrier that keeps smaller competitors at bay.  If there is a solution, it will come from people working on Facebook's open source code in the evening, not from OpenAI or Google, or even from Facebook.


  • In 2026 Intel is expected to release 80 core mainstream desktop chips - 16 Performance cores and 64 Efficiency cores.  (WCCFTech)

    Which used to be a lot.

    That's not the story, but it's the most interesting point in the article.


Friends Don't Let Friends Do Reddit Video of the Day



Reddit as a tech company is basically worthless.  Its market value comes from the communities built up over many years by groups of volunteers, and Reddit's CEO Steve Huffman-Fried has told those volunteers to, and I quote, "go fuck themselves with a kidney stone the size of a grapefruit".

This is not generally considered a sound business move.

The default subreddits - and hence Reddit's appearance to a new user - look like MySpace as run by Brian Stelter anyway, so if the whole site burns to the ground it will not be missed.  Much.


Disclaimer: Quotes in the mirror are more accurate than they appear.

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Friday, June 16

Geek

Daily News Stuff 16 June 2023

Volo's Guide To The Dewey Decimal System Edition

Top Story

Tech News



Meddling in the Affairs of Wizards Video of the Day



Nick Rekieta speaks to Ed Greenwood, who has been involved in the creation of Dungeons and Dragons since "as I said to Gary Gygax" years ago.

Greenwood is younger than I expected.  He's been writing stories in his Forgotten Realms setting for longer than I've been alive, but he started as a child.  Which is cheating.

He estimates that he owns 400,000 books.  That's, uh, rather a lot.  I was wondering if he misspoke but he later says that he spends thousands of dollars a month at his local bookstore, so it may be accurate.  (The largest private library in the world has an estimated 1.5 million volumes, so he's up there.)

I own maybe 2% of that number and moving house almost killed me.  My double garage is still packed solid with heavy boxes nearly a year later.  I can't imagine shifting fifty times that.


Disclaimer: Do not meddle in the affairs of Windows, because it will fuck your shit up.

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Thursday, June 15

Geek

Daily News Stuff 15 June 2023

Razers Of The Lost Arc Edition

Top Story


Tech News



Disclaimer: Up with which I will not put.

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